Avoiding Logical Fallacies

When correlation isn't causation

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A fire being extinguished at the Observer

By Paige Turner / Photocredits: Darkstalker Darkfold

If I don’t go golfing today, I will prepare my taxes instead.

Today, I did not prepare my taxes. So I went golfing, yes?

Not necessarily, according to the laws of logic. While I did not prepare my taxes, it is impossible to tell whether I actually went golfing or not! It is a fallacy to assume such. Causation does not equal correlation and all that.

What went on at the Observer

In the aftermath of one of The Observers own, John, being shot on the doorsteps of our offices, I was given the task of watching camera footage from that morning and reporting on the event, or events… Many times, before the smoke of the fire covered my view of the scene (and yes, he was shot at the same time as the offices were firebombed) ALSO along with some fight going on to the side. About that logic above; now I caught myself making this very mistake!

Watching the video footage was no easy task mind you. I was almost grateful for the appearance of smoke and the blanket it gave over the cameras.

The day begins simple enough, with Daiyu and John standing in front of the offices having a chat. Simple people from the neighborhood come and go; a cute scene of a man carrying a woman on his shoulders. If not for the hunched over, careful posture everyone was carrying, one might think this was an afternoon in a peaceful town somewhere.

A woman with heavy tattoos who is starting at the reporter John
The woman who shot John – in the background Mu, Tabitha and an unknown male

And then it’s as if someone yelled “Hell’s coming with me.” Indeed, all hell broke loose.

A man wielding a hammer of some sort comes out of another alley and attacks the back/shoulder riding couple, sadly our camera lost sight of this so I don’t know what happened here, but it appears they might have been one of the ‘contestants‘ in the latest sick game from Tori.

Then a person appears and begins threatening and taking shots at our John. Unable to identify the shooter, I can only say the common assumption here is that it’s a gangster and this was all a coordinated effort, fighting, fires and worse. I visited John with my colleagues in HGH today and he wasn’t able to tell us, appearing in a deep sleep or coma… I hope he recovers. So here I had made that assumption, logical but perhaps in error.

Are there two, maybe even three separate incidents here perhaps? That most likely is the truth of the matter. While gangs have been known to target members of The Observer, the shooter in this incident was not marked as a gang member and seemed independent of the people who arrived with the Molotov cocktail.

Likely there is more to be found out there. All the camera footage shows this person was working alone and perhaps the confrontation with John was not planned. On the other hand, the setting of the fire could be nothing but practiced and well executed. Whoever the culprits are, they knew what to do and how to do it without a care in the world. And the man with the hammer? Shall we blame drugs, call it a “bad trip”? Was he a distraction to the bigger part of the show?

Nothing is for certain here, including anyone’s safety, present and future. But after viewing the footage from the security cameras (which are supposed to answer questions, not raise more of them), the only thing I am clear on is that our streets are becoming less and less safe.

“The people who firebombed our office are associated with Tori and Yuugen. Why Tabitha Hopper is now involved with them I have no idea. To the lady who choose to shoot John at the same time; jail awaits. The Observer’s management will not stand idly by and let our staff be victimised by this town”

Daiyu Tang
Fire licks up inside the window at the Observer Newspaper
The fire from the Observer’s interior camera
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